Research

My dissertation centers on the Politics of Crime, Punishment, and Insecurity. I study how judicial bureaucrats respond to security-driven pressures—such as migration shocks—and how these dynamics shape pretrial detention, punitiveness, and broader patterns of citizen–state interactions. A second strand of my work examines the political consequences of punitive policies, tracing how institutional design and everyday encounters with the criminal justice system influence citizens’ attitudes and political engagement. More broadly, I work in Comparative Political Behavior, engaging with a wide range of topics including party system nationalization, electoral and non-electoral participation, ideological thinking, representation, and policy feedback effects. Here you can explore my ongoing projects, published research, and publicly available replication materials.

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Peer-Reviewed Publications

  1. Networked Inequality: The role of Changes in Network Heterogeneity and Network Size in Attitudes towards Inequality. (2026). Social Networks, 84 (January): 27-45 (with Alejandro Plaza, Guillermo Beck, Julio Iturra, and Gabriel Otero).
    [Article] [Code]

    Summary: Existing research on attitudes towards inequality has predominantly focused on individual class or socioeconomic position, with little attention paid to the role of personal networks. The limited existing research has primarily focused on the influence of specific class ties, while overlooking a crucial dimension: network size. Moreover, the lack of quantitative data containing information about socioeconomic standing, network configuration and attitudes over time for a group of the same individuals has hindered the accurate testing of the influence of personal networks on attitudes towards inequality. To address these gaps, the main goal of this paper is to examine the extent to which changes in the size and heterogeneity of acquaintanceship networks affect attitudes towards inequality in Chile – a country with high levels of income and wealth inequality. We utilise quantitative data from two waves (2016–2018) of a representative panel survey for the urban Chilean population, provided by the Chilean Longitudinal Social Survey (ELSOC). Our cross-sectional analyses indicate that network heterogeneity and network size both enhance perceptions of income inequality and preferences for equality, while decreasing perceptions of meritocracy. In the fixed effects regression models, however, network size is more closely linked to an increased perception of inequality, while network heterogeneity is more strongly associated with greater preferences for equality. Moreover, increases in network size tend to reduce meritocratic perceptions. These findings suggest that network size and network heterogeneity are complementary network characteristics in explaining attitudes towards inequality.

  2. Electoral Turnout in Chile: An Age-Period-Cohort Approach. (2019). Revista de Ciencia Política, 39(1): 75–98 (with Matías Bargsted and Nicolás Somma).
    [Article] [Code]

    Summary: Through an age-period-cohort analysis applied to survey data from 1994 to 2015, we seek to understand the decline in electoral participation that has occurred in Chile during the current democratic era. Our analysis confirms some previous hypotheses, but it also illuminates some new trends. First, we find cohort effects indicating that the generations that voted during the 1988 Plebiscite tend to vote more often than those who became eligible during the democratic era. Second, Chileans' propensity to vote increases with age, although this effect is much more pronounced among cohorts born after 1970. Finally, we find a strong and negative linear period effect, whereby the propensity to vote among all age groups has declined universally.

Working Papers

Do Policies Drive Politics? A Causal-Inference Review of the Policy Feedback Literature. (Working Paper) (with Andrea L. Campbell).
[Manuscript]

REPLACE: This paper provides the first systematic mapping of causal mass-level policy feedback research. Conceptually, it clarifies what constitutes a feedback effect on citizens, offering a simple framework that distinguishes the types of feedback policies can generate, the actors involved in producing them, and the attitudinal and behavioral targets they influence. Empirically, the paper synthesizes the existing literature through an original quantitative review, documenting which policies are most frequently studied, which political outcomes dominate scholarly attention, and which research designs underpin the field. The analysis reveals important blind spots—most notably, a narrow focus on a small set of policies and countries, and an uneven reliance on specific methodological approaches. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda for identifying when and how public policies reshape citizens’ orientations toward the state, thereby advancing the study of democratic governance and the political consequences of policy design.

When Do Acquaintance Networks Grow? Life Events, Civic Participation, and Social Dynamics. (R&R, Social Networks) (with Alejandro Plaza and Vicente Espinoza).
[Manuscript]

Summary: This study examines how personal networks respond to two contrasting forms of social exposure: disruptive life events and participation in civic organizations. We theorize that acquaintance networks operate as semi-stable systems, buffering short-term shocks but expanding durably through structured, repeated exposure in organizational settings. Using two waves of nationally representative panel data from Chile, we measure the network size with the Network Scale-Up Method. Our difference-in-differences strategy shows that most life events have limited effects, with only marital reconciliation producing modest increases. In contrast, active participation, especially in educational, labor, political, and sports groups, substantially expands networks, and the effects hold across robustness checks. These findings point to a dual role of personal networks: maintaining stability under short-term shocks while enabling expansion through sustained organizational participation.

The Longitudinal Unexpected Event During Survey Design. (Working Paper) (with Matías Bargsted and Andrés González).
[Manuscript]

Summary: The Unexpected Event during Survey Design (UESD) has emerged as a preeminent identification strategy to ascertain causal effects using observational cross-sectional survey data (Muñoz et al. 2020). UESD capitalizes on the sudden occurrence of events, unrelated to the timing of survey fieldwork, to establish a natural experimental setting. Despite its advantages, the inherent characteristics of the data within UESD present significant challenges for establishing causality. In this article, we explore how to adapt the UESD for panel data. This strategy opens new analytical opportunities that can significantly strengthen the credibility of causal effects. In particular, we claim that additional survey waves offer opportunities for more robust substantiation of the identification assumptions; it allows adopting a difference-in-differences approach in scenarios where underlying assumptions may not be may be uncertain or unlikely to hold; and it enables the examination of the durability of causal effects. To demonstrate LUESD's benefits, we delve into the "electoral winners-loser gap" literature in the context of Chile's 2022 constitutional referendum. Utilizing an extensive panel survey, we study the referendum's influence on satisfaction with democracy considering separately the consequences of winning and losing. Given the growing number of panel surveys in the social sciences, we believe this design holds promising opportunities for researchers.

Work in Progress

Behind Bars, Beyond the Ballot: The Political Costs of Pre-Trial Detention. (Working Paper).

Summary: What are the political consequences of the punitive face of the state? How does incarceration impact the exercise of citizenship? This article examines the behavioral effects of pretrial detention, a common yet underexplored feature of criminal justice systems in Latin America, where 30% to 80% of the incarcerated population has not undergone trial. Chile, with its relatively low crime rates and well-functioning justice system, provides a compelling case to investigate this issue. Using administrative data from multiple government agencies, I focus on the effects of pretrial detention on voter turnout. Employing a judge leniency instrumental variable (IV) design, I isolate the causal impact of pretrial detention and find significant negative effects on voter turnout, consistent across multiple elections. Subgroup analysis reveals minimal variation, suggesting that the effects are broadly homogeneous across different affected populations. The findings highlight the lasting consequences of pretrial detention on democratic participation, shedding light on how punitive measures undermine political engagement and exacerbate the challenges faced by democratic institutions..

The Political Consequences of Criminal Procedural Reform in Latin America. (Working Paper).

Summary: The proper functioning of courts is essential to the Rule of Law. However, in many developing countries, judicial systems are plagued by inefficiencies, arbitrariness, and corruption. To address these problems, comprehensive reforms have been implemented to tackle these challenges. One notable example is the Latin American Criminal Procedural Revolution (LACPR, Langer, 2007), where nearly all countries in the region—except Brazil and Cuba—replaced their inquisitorial Criminal Procedural Codes with new texts inspired by adversarial models of prosecution. Multiple studies have evaluated the effects of these reforms in countries like Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, focusing on their effects on judicial performance and criminal activity. However, the political implications of these reforms remain underexplored. This article examines the political consequences of the LACPR, specifically its impact on public opinion and political competition. I argue that the key components of these reforms—greater degrees of transparency, shorter time frames, and higher relevance of alternative exits in criminal procedures—alter the incentives for political actors and the elite cues related to the functioning of courts. In the short term, the new system increases public confidence in security institutions. Over time, however, these gains dissipate and eventually reverse as political actors frame the reforms, highlighting the new set of rules as obstacles to fighting crime. To test my argument, I analyze the staggered implementation of these reforms in Chile (2000–2005) and Colombia (2005–2008). I supplement my results with general trends for a larger sample of Latin American countries. This study expands our understanding of the broader political effects of judicial reforms in Latin America and highlights the complex dynamics between institutional change and public opinion.

Coethnic Love or Policy Preferences?: The Interaction between Descriptive and Substantive Representation. (Working Paper).

Summary: Several studies provide evidence of the positive relationship between descriptive and substantive representation. However, there is no consensus regarding the explanatory mechanisms behind this link. A significant portion of previous studies in this field has focused on understanding the behavior of political elites (Lowande, Ritchie, and Lauterbach 2019). In this study, I will focus on voters’ preferences for descriptive and substantive representation in ethnic terms (Martin and Blinder 2021). My goal is to determine how voters weigh both forms of representation. Do voters prefer representatives who share their ethnic identity? Or do they prefer candidates congruent with their policy preferences? Does the preference for co-ethnic candidates have limits? How do they respond to co-ethnic candidates at the antipodes of their ideological preferences? My central hypothesis is that voters more electorally penalize ethnic minority candidates who express support for pro-minority policies. In this article, I study the case of the Chilean constituent process 2020-2022, where initiatives that expand the rights of indigenous peoples, such as Plurinationality, gained notoriety in the public discussion. Through a survey conjoint candidate experiment, applied before and after the 2022 referendum, I empirically evaluate the effect of these two attributes (belonging to an Indigenous People and Support for Plurinationality) on the propensity to vote for a candidate. My results show a penalty for all candidates who support Plurinationality but to a greater extent for indigenous candidates. These results demonstrate the tensions between descriptive and substantive representation and the limitations for expanding the rights of ethnic groups.

Does Voting Create a Habit? Evidence from Chile’s Electoral Cycles (2012–2017). (Working Paper) (with Matías Bargsted).

Summary: Is people's voting behavior stable over time? If so, why do some people vote, election after election, while others are regular abstainers? Several studies have detected patterns of temporal persistence in voter turnout. However, there is no agreement on the causal mechanism behind this fact. This article empirically explores the hypothesis of voting as a habit using Chilean registry data. This data source has measures of electoral participation of all Chilean citizens during four election cycles held between 2012 and 2017. Contrary to the typical cases studied in this literature, the Chilean institutional setting involves automatic registration of and voluntary vote, which avoids some common inferential risks. In this article, we combine different empirical strategies to explore the effect of voting in one election in the propensity to vote in future elections. In contrast to previous studies, we do not detect substantive habit effects. We argue that this divergence of results is due to differences in voter registration processes and the costs associated with participation. Our results indicate that voting is not a transformative event: the act of voting does not affect future voting behavior. The effect of voting over subsequent voting it is close to zero, in other cases it can approach a relatively large magnitudes that approximates or even surpasses 20 percentage points. Moreover, the effects are relatively large only when the amount of time held between elections is relatively brief, while the causal effect sharply decreases for elections held a few years apart. This implies that in Chile voting seems to adopt a habit-like dynamic but that does not withstand the passing of time.

Book Chapters

  1. Multilevel Analysis for the Study of Egocentric Networks. (2019). In Social Networks: Theory, Methods, and Applications in Latin America (pp 183-202), Madrid: Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (with Alejandro Plaza and Roberto Cantillán).

    Summary: This chapter reviews the statistical formulation and substantive applications of multilevel regression models for analyzing egocentric network data in public opinion surveys. Social network research traditionally follows two approaches: sociocentric analyses of complete networks and egocentric approaches that study the personal networks reported by survey respondents. In egocentric data, respondents (egos) name alters with whom they maintain different types of ties, producing a hierarchical structure in which alter- or tie-level observations (Level 1) are nested within individuals’ networks (Level 2). The chapter first outlines the conceptual foundations of personal networks and their implementation in survey designs. It then describes the multilevel structure of egocentric data and its associated statistical models. Finally, it discusses research questions that can be tested using these models and illustrates their application with data from the Chilean Longitudinal Social Survey (ELSOC) conducted by the Center for Social Conflict and Cohesion Studies.

  2. The Right in the Territory: A Subnational Approach on the Structuring of Electoral Competition in Chile. (2019). In Anatomy of the Chilean Right: State, Market, and Value Formation in Times of Change (pp 191-225), Santiago: Fondo de Cultura Económica (with Julieta Suárez-Cao).

    Summary: The chapter analyzes the territorial foundations of Chile’s center-right by examining electoral results from 1989 to 2016 across presidential, legislative, and especially municipal contests. Using regional and communal data, it documents persistent geographic heterogeneity: the right performs consistently poorly in the northern regions and parts of Biobío and Magallanes, while Araucanía, Aysén, and portions of central Chile are stable strongholds. Socio-structural factors such as poverty, population, and municipal resources explain little of this variation, while spatial analyses reveal only modest clusters of high or low support. Instead, the evidence points to the growing importance of local political dynamics and candidate-centered competition, with strong mayoral candidates boosting down-ballot performance. The findings challenge the notion of a uniformly nationalized right and underscore the unexpected strength of localism in Chile’s centralized political system.

  3. The Localization of Politics in Municipal Electoral Competition in Chile. (2017). In The Fractured Backbone: Revisiting Political Intermediaries in Chile (pp 57-86), Santiago: RIL Editores (with Julieta Suárez-Cao).

    Summary: This chapter examines the growing importance of local political dynamics in contemporary Chile. It argues that the “localization” of politics is not simply a territorial shift but a broader transformation in how political actors, institutions, and citizens interact across space. Drawing on comparative literature and Chilean empirical cases, the chapter shows that municipalities have become strategic arenas for electoral competition, policy experimentation, and political socialization. Local governments increasingly shape citizens’ access to public goods, patterns of political engagement, and the visibility of parties and candidates. The chapter also highlights how territorial heterogeneity—urban–rural divides, socio-spatial segmentation, and regional inequalities—structures political behavior and representation. Overall, it underscores that understanding Chile’s political dynamics requires analyzing how national processes are filtered, refracted, and often reshaped through subnational contexts.

Policy Writing

  1. Radiografía del Cambio Social. Resultados ELSOC 2016-2018. (2019). Nota COES de Política Pública (with Roberto González, Matías Bargsted, Alejandro Plaza, Daniel Miranda, and Héctor Carvacho).
    [RCS] [Code]

    Summary: The report analyzes the first three waves of ELSOC to examine how Chilean society changed between 2016 and 2018 across urban-territorial, economic, political, and mental-health domains. The findings show rising territorial inequalities, persistent socioeconomic and gender gaps, shifts in political engagement, and stable yet unequal patterns of well-being. Together, the results provide a concise portrait of early post-2016 social transformations in Chile.

  2. Resultados Primera Ola del Estudio Longitudinal Social de Chile: Cohesión Social y Migración. (2019). Nota COES de Política Pública N° 1 (with Roberto González, Matías Bargsted, Daniel Miranda, Héctor Carvacho, and Cristián Doña).
    [Document]

    Summary: The report analyzes first-wave ELSOC survey data to examine Chileans’ perceptions of and interactions with Peruvian immigrants. Using nationally representative measures, it finds that positive and frequent intergroup contact is strongly linked to higher trust, comfort, and favorable attitudes toward immigrants. At the same time, perceptions of threat remain widespread, particularly among lower-educated respondents. The results highlight the central role of everyday contact in shaping public opinion on migration.

  3. Opinión Ciudadana y Cambio Constitucional. Análisis desde la Opinión Pública. (2015). Serie Más y Mejor Democracia, Número 1 (for UNDP).
    [Document] [Code]

    Summary: This policy report examines how Chileans have understood and evaluated the country’s constitutional framework from the return to democracy through the early 2010s. Drawing on a wide range of public opinion surveys —including national polls and LAPOP data— the study traces perceptions of the 1980 Constitution, attitudes toward authoritarian enclaves, and support for institutional reforms. It highlights the challenges of measuring constitutional preferences, documenting how wording effects, political context, and levels of information shape survey responses. The report also identifies generational differences and shifting trends in demand for constitutional change, showing that support for reform rises during periods of political tension and social mobilization.